 | 2 Nov 2026 |
The Morning Brief By Gregor Becker |
Editor-in-Chief (M.Phil Economics, Oxford) | Hello, Monday crowd. It is the first trading day of November, and Guy Fawkes Night falls on Thursday. First, this: Oil fell sharply on Monday, with Brent down 4.61% to $108.20 a barrel, after reports that both Washington and Tehran want a diplomatic end to the war. Both sides are also preparing for strikes after Tuesday's U.S. midterms, so talking and arming at once. And also: • | Intel fell 28.6% after a weak forecast and a soft PC market, dragging AMD down 10.9% and Dell down 10.8% |
• | And on Intel, our analysts split: Jordan would buy the plunge, calling the memory squeeze temporary - Gregor says PC demand looks stuck until 2027 and the shares stay risky. The debate is just below ⬇️ |
Editor's note: Today we also look at the big tech selloff - our Data Center Portfolio holds the AI buildout names. Since January 2023 the portfolio has returned 508% and opened a 404-point lead over the S&P 500. See every holding.
| | Market Snapshot Index | 24h Change | YTD | S&P 500 | -1.82% | +10.5% | Nasdaq | -2.86% | +9.5% | Dow Jones | -1.09% | +7.0% | | | DAX | +0.29% | +5.5% | FTSE 100 | +0.10% | +7.9% | Euro Stoxx 50 | +0.60% | +4.0% | Nikkei 225 | -0.33% | +21.7% | Hang Seng | +0.42% | -11.2% |
| | The Odds 🎲 | Together with |  |
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What prediction markets are betting on today. -6 pts since yesterday | 30% |
| | Top of the Morning Oil falls as the U.S. and Iran both say they would prefer to talk By Charlotte Whitmore · Senior Analyst |
|  | Oil prices ease as U.S. and Iran signal talks. | • | 🕊️ The peace talk: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump would prefer to resolve the war "diplomatically", while adding that the U.S. has "everything we need" if force is required. Iran signaled a deal is still possible after two days of talks mediated by Qatar, provided its demands are implemented tangibly. |
Dive Deeper: The same reports say both countries are preparing for more strikes after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called for an "immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response" to any threat. • | 🗳️ Talks before the vote: Both governments are therefore offering peace and preparing for war at once. That is not a contradiction so much as a negotiating position. |
Why it matters: Oil traders are watching for the next escalation, not the last headline. ING said the market is bracing for more hostilities and, because many key moments in this conflict have come over weekends, "may have to hold its breath until the end of the week." • | 📉 Stocks: European shares edged higher as oil fell, while Wall Street ended the day lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.82% and the Nasdaq down 2.86%. |
• | Our take: A fall of 4% on hopes is not a fall on facts. Nothing has been agreed, both sides are readying strikes, and the oil price is being set by what happens after Tuesday's vote. Treat sub-$100 crude as a pause, not a peace. |
| | ➡️ Easy-to-Follow Portfolio |  | • | The record: The return since January 2023 comes to 508%, with a lead of 404 points over the S&P 500 to go with it. |
• | Nothing held back: Every holding published in full, with the price we paid and a live call on each name. |
• | Act when we act: Each week's buys and sells reach you the morning we make them, so you act on them rather than reading about them later. |
| | What’s up Yesterday's session, factoring in pre-market data 
| $AZN +7.0% AstraZeneca PLC |
| $XOM +2.2% Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation |
| $TMUS +6.2% T-Mobile US, Inc. |
| What’s down 
| $INTC -28.6% Intel Corp. |
| $AMD -10.9% Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. |
| $AVGO -5.5% Broadcom Inc. |
| $SKHY -8.0% SK hynix Inc. |
| $DELL -10.8% Dell Technologies Inc. |
| | 🤝 Your First Month Free |  | • | Where it stands: Measured against the S&P 500 since January 2023, the portfolio is 404 points ahead, on a return of 508%. |
• | The offer: Enter code OXFORD26 at checkout and your first month of Data Center Portfolio costs nothing. Cancel any time. |
| | Today's Debate → | After a 29.3% plunge, is Intel ($INTC) now a buy for investors with a multi-year horizon? |
 | Jordan Bittencourt Bull 🐂 |
Yes. The chipmaker's outlook reflects a temporary memory and supply squeeze, while data center and AI demand stays intact, so I would buy this plunge for the long run. • | Growth is intact: Intel ($INTC), a chipmaker split across CPUs, data center, and foundry, forecast fourth-quarter revenue below estimates right after a quarter in which revenue rose 20% year-over-year. I read that as a supply problem hitting a business that is still expanding. |
• | Supply caps sales: Constrained Intel 3 Granite Rapids chips and a memory shortage limit how much Intel can ship right now, which holds back near-term revenue. I think supply improves with time, and the data center and AI demand waiting behind it is what Intel sells into once it does. |
• | What would prove me wrong: If Intel's next results show data center and AI revenue stalling while PC sales stay depressed into 2027, the shortage story fails and I would change my mind. |
 | Gregor Becker Bear 🐻 |
No. Intel itself warned that next quarter will be weaker, PC demand looks stuck until 2027, and the business still loses money, so the cheaper shares stay risky. • | The warning: Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue below estimates right after a quarter that only matched expectations. The streak of big beats that supported the premium has ended, and I think the shares now have to be priced without that cushion. |
• | Jordan's squeeze: Jordan calls this a temporary supply squeeze, but a memory shortage that keeps PC buyers away is a demand problem, and it hits Intel's biggest sales driver. Intel's operating margin is still negative 4.2%, so flat sales leave it no profit to fund its factories. |
• | What would prove me wrong: I would turn positive if PC shipments recovered while memory prices eased, and Intel's factories began earning an operating profit on the chips they make. |
| | The Digest ✨ What investors like you are reading. Beijing is preparing broader stock-market support after October's slide, Bloomberg Business reports. That means more state buying and policy backing for Chinese equities. As Reuters reports, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to raise rates in December. The harder question is the neutral rate, the level that neither spurs nor curbs growth, and nobody agrees on where it sits. Citi has committed up to €22 billion to fund a Delfin buyout plan led by Del Vecchio, Reuters reports, citing a source. |
| | ➡️ Follow Our Trading Strategy |  | • | Against the index: The portfolio's 508% since January 2023 leaves it 404 points ahead of the S&P 500. |
• | What arrives: The full Data Center Portfolio every week, with the entry we paid and a live call on every name we hold. |
| | Situational Awareness  Curated by Nathaniel Brooks · Senior Analyst |
US • | Futures rebound Monday: Stock futures recovered after Friday's selloff as oil slid on signs a Mideast escalation may be avoided for now. ( WSJ) |
• | AI funding questions: Investors are asking who will pay for the global AI build-out. ( WSJ) |
• | Post-midterm bounce bets: Stock bulls are positioning for a rally after the midterm elections. ( Bloomberg Business) |
• | Contested election reaction: Trump suggested he may challenge the election outcome. ( Barrons) |
• | Inovio approval surge: Inovio Pharmaceuticals ($INO) shares jumped more than 230% premarket after the FDA granted accelerated approval for Voceryq in adults with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. ( Benzinga) |
World • | Belgian premier resigns: Belgium's prime minister offered his resignation but will continue budget talks. ( Bloomberg Business) |
• | Binance outflows stabilise: Binance says outflows are stabilising as the exchange returns online after a $6.3 billion heist. ( Reuters) |
• | Ryanair fare warning: Ryanair ($RYAAY) CEO told CNBC that fares could rise by up to 20% in 2027 as the airline's fuel bill jumps by $2.2 billion. ( CNBC) |
• | Oil diplomacy slide: Oil prices fell on reports that both the U.S. and Iran are seeking diplomacy. ( CNBC) |
• | Nikkei bank-tech drag: Japan's Nikkei fell 0.9%, weighed down by bank and tech shares after a selloff in AI-related U.S. stocks. ( WSJ) |
| | Today's Agenda (ET) | Germany: Retail Sales YoY (Sep) est. -0.3%, prev -0.3% |
| Germany: Retail Sales MoM (Sep) est. 0.4%, prev 1.2% |
| Switzerland: Retail Sales YoY (Sep) est. 3%, prev 3.9% |
| Switzerland: Retail Sales MoM (Sep) est. 0.2%, prev 0.6% |
| Switzerland: procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Oct) est. 55.3, prev 55.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (Oct) est. 7.7%, prev 7.1% |
| US: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) est. 54.6, prev 54.5 |
| US: ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct) est. 53, prev 52.7 |
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