 | 5 Nov 2026 |
The Morning Brief By Gregor Becker |
Editor-in-Chief (M.Phil Economics, Oxford) | Hello, and good morning. The Bank of England decides on interest rates today, just as euro zone inflation hits a three-year high and cuts the odds of European rate cuts. • | AppLovin jumps on its results: The ad-tech firm beat third-quarter estimates and guided fourth-quarter sales above consensus, so the shares are up over 16% premarket: advertisers are still spending. |
• | Booking splits our analysts: The stock rose 10.1% despite a $900 million regulatory hit to revenue. Jordan says the charge was one-off and he would still buy; Jess sees a regulator and wartime travel weakness as two drags and would skip it. Hear them out below ⬇️ |
• | Editor's note: With a prolonged war in Iran flagged as the market's real black swan, security spending looks less optional. Our Cybersecurity Portfolio holds the companies defending the enterprise stack. See every holding. |
Start here: markets shrugged off a Democratic sweep and rallied, because investors had already sold what they feared. | | Market Snapshot Index | 24h Change | YTD | S&P 500 | +1.58% | +12.1% | Nasdaq | +1.44% | +10.8% | Dow Jones | +3.03% | +10.3% | | | DAX | +0.67% | +8.5% | FTSE 100 | +0.72% | +9.6% | Euro Stoxx 50 | -0.11% | +6.6% | Nikkei 225 | -1.79% | +17.8% | Hang Seng | +3.67% | -5.9% |
• | Our take: Politics, not earnings, set the tone: a divided Congress and a sharp drop in oil prices lifted business-friendly names, while AI infrastructure stocks sagged on fears of tighter data-center rules. The split between cloud giants and chipmakers is the thing to watch, along with Qualcomm's disappointing earnings weighing on chips. |
| | The Odds 🎲 | Together with |  |
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What prediction markets are betting on today. +4 pts since yesterday | 30% |
| | Top of the Morning Markets shrug off a Democratic sweep and rally By Charlotte Whitmore · Senior Analyst |
|  | Stocks keep climbing despite a Democratic sweep | What happened: Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and stocks first fell, then rallied. Nasdaq 100 futures were down as much as 2.4% overnight before turning higher. The S&P 500 closed up 1.58% and the Dow rose 3.03%. • | 📈 The reversal: Investors spent weeks cutting tech positions before the vote, so by the time the result arrived there was less left to sell. A feared outcome came true and the market treated it as good news. |
Dive Deeper: The overnight drop was about AI. Democrats flipped the Texas governorship, and Bank of America strategists had called that race a "referendum on affordability versus AI data centers". CoreWeave, Equinix, GE Vernova and Oracle fell. Defense stocks slid too. • | 🤝 The rescue: President Trump said Democrats did "a good job" and that he can work with them. AMD also gave a sales forecast well above analysts' estimates. |
Why it matters: Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year near 4.915%, and the dollar had its worst day since early September. Gold went back above $4,000. Bitcoin dipped to $75,700 on the first results and recovered to about $78,300, though US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $1.04 billion over two sessions. • | ⚖️ Crypto's real worry: CoinShares' James Butterfill said bitcoin had largely priced in a sweep, but "CLARITY faces a harder path". CLARITY is the bill that would set crypto market rules. |
• | Our take: The rally is mostly relief that an uncertain vote is over, and it says little about what a Democratic Congress will do to AI spending or crypto rules. Those fights are still ahead, and prices today do not settle them. Stocks have earned the bounce, and it is a bounce rather than a verdict. |
| | ➡️ Easy-to-Follow Portfolio |  | • | The record: Measured against the S&P 500 since March 2024, the portfolio is 21 points ahead, on a return of 76%. |
• | Nothing held back: Every holding published in full, with the price we paid and a live call on each name. |
• | Act when we act: Each week's buys and sells reach you the morning we make them, so you act on them rather than reading about them later. |
| | What’s up Yesterday's session, factoring in pre-market data 
| $MSFT +6.7% Microsoft Corporation |
| $AAPL +5.3% Apple Inc. Apple gained 5.3% as shares surged to an all-time high, cementing the iPhone maker's status as a safe haven for tech investors weary of heavy artificial-intelligence spending. |
| $AMZN +6.1% Amazon.com, Inc. |
| What’s down 
| $NVDA -3.2% NVIDIA Corporation |
| $MU -7.0% Micron Technology, Inc. Micron slid 7.0% as memory stocks fell while investors reassessed the outlook for artificial intelligence infrastructure spending following Democratic wins, and it sinks another 2.6% before the bell. |
| $TSLA -3.3% Tesla, Inc. |
| | 🤝 Your First Month Free |  | • | Where it stands: The portfolio's 76% since March 2024 leaves it 21 points ahead of the S&P 500. |
• | The offer: Enter code OXFORD26 at checkout and your first month of Cybersecurity Portfolio costs nothing. Cancel any time. |
| | Today's Debate → | After a 10.1% jump today, is Booking Holdings ($BKNG) still a buy at these levels? |
 | Jordan Bittencourt Bull 🐂 |
Yes. I believe the revenue dip came from a one-time regulatory charge while travelers kept booking more stays and results beat estimates, so I would still buy the shares after this jump. • | Demand underneath: Room nights grew 7%, so more travelers are staying through its platforms and the charge sits on top of a growing base. Rival Expedia ($EXPE) raised its annual revenue outlook in the same week, which tells me sector demand is holding up. |
• | What would prove me wrong: I would change my mind if room night growth in the next quarter slows sharply from this pace with no new FTC charge to explain it. A second revenue decline without a one-time item would tell me the slowdown is real. |
 | Jess Langley Bear 🐻 |
No. I think Booking's revenue fell because a regulator's action and wartime travel weakness both cut sales, so I see two drags on growth and would skip this jump. • | Jordan's one-off: Jordan blames a single legal event, but the conflict-driven travel weakness landed in the same quarter. Travelers cutting or rerouting trips lowers bookings and commissions, and that drag continues even if the FTC matter is closed. |
• | What would prove me wrong: My test is next quarter's revenue landing above the year-earlier level while conflicts still disrupt travel. That result would show customers are booking again despite the pressure. |
| | The Digest ✨ What investors like you are reading. Euro zone inflation hit a three-year high, Reuters reports. That lowers the odds of European Central Bank rate cuts and could lift bond yields, a key risk for rate-sensitive European equities. Toyota Motor ($TM) jumped Thursday even after cutting its annual sales forecast, Market Watch reports. Investors appear to be focused on profit resilience rather than volume. AppLovin ($APP) jumped over 16% premarket after beating third-quarter estimates and guiding fourth-quarter sales above consensus, Benzinga reports, signaling strong ad-tech demand. |
| | ➡️ Follow Our Trading Strategy |  | • | Against the index: Since March 2024 the portfolio has returned 76% and opened a 21-point lead over the S&P 500. |
• | What arrives: The full Cybersecurity Portfolio every week, with the entry we paid and a live call on every name we hold. |
| | Situational Awareness  Curated by Gregor Becker · Editor-in-Chief |
US • | Dow futures jump: Dow futures surged 1,000 points as Democrats took Congress, lifting health care and consumer stocks while data-center concerns weighed on AI shares. ( FXEmpire) |
• | ADP October hiring: Private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, according to payroll processor ADP. That beat expectations. ( New York Post) |
• | Bitcoin election rally: Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000 as markets rallied after the Democratic sweep. ( CoinDesk) |
• | Treasury auction sizes: The U.S. Treasury left its coupon auction sizes unchanged. ( WSJ) |
World • | French strike action: French unions united for nationwide strikes, adding pressure on Macron's government. ( The News-Gazette) |
• | Australian dollar strength: The Australian dollar held above 0.7000 against the US dollar, supported by a trade surplus and a softer greenback. ( FXStreet) |
• | Canva restructuring plan: Canva announced a restructuring that affects 22% of its workforce, including layoffs, team consolidation, relocation requests and office changes, as growth slows. ( Fox Business) |
• | Iran war risk: Alicia Levine of BNY's wealth management business says markets have not priced in a long war in Iran, which she calls the real black swan. ( Market Watch) |
| | Today's Agenda (ET) | Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (Oct) est. 3.1%, prev 3% |
| Italy: Retail Sales YoY (Sep) est. 1.1%, prev 0.5% |
| Italy: Retail Sales MoM (Sep) est. 0.2%, prev 0.3% |
| UK: BoE Interest Rate Decision est. 4%, prev 3.75% |
| UK: Interest Rate Decision (Nov) est. 4%, prev 3.75% |
| US: Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Q3) est. 2.8%, prev 1.4% |
| US: Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/31) est. 196K, prev 194K |
| | Get In Touch | Crafted with 🧠 and 🤍 by the Oxford Market Intelligence team. Explore the paid portfolios All content provided by Oxford Market Intelligence is for informational and educational purposes only and is not meant to represent trade or investment recommendations. You signed up to this mailing list at oxford-intelligence.com or through one of our partners. © Oxford Market Intelligence 2026. All rights reserved. |
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