 | 4 Nov 2026 |
The Morning Brief By Gregor Becker |
Editor-in-Chief (M.Phil Economics, Oxford) | Hey, good to see you. • | 3M settles over PFAS: The company has agreed to pay $7.4 billion to settle injury claims from up to 120,000 plaintiffs, which turns a long legal overhang into a bill with a number on it. |
• | AMD splits our analysts: The stock is up 9.9% after its results. Gregor says data-center sales point to lasting demand, while Charlotte says the price rests on one quarter of AI chip sales. The full debate is below ⬇️ |
• | Editor's note: Nothing in today's news bears directly on space, but the theme stands on its own. Our Space Portfolio holds the companies building orbit into an industry. See every holding. |
Before any of that: Marvell is paying $115 billion for Lumentum, and shareholders in both companies sold on the news. | | Market Snapshot Index | 24h Change | YTD | S&P 500 | +0.36% | +10.4% | Nasdaq | +0.83% | +9.2% | Dow Jones | -0.38% | +7.0% | | | DAX | +1.47% | +7.0% | FTSE 100 | +1.08% | +8.1% | Euro Stoxx 50 | +1.90% | +5.6% | Nikkei 225 | -1.42% | +20.0% | Hang Seng | +1.67% | -9.2% |
| | The Odds 🎲 | Together with |  |
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What prediction markets are betting on today. | | Top of the Morning Marvell pays $115 billion for Lumentum and both stocks fall By Jordan Bittencourt · Senior Analyst |
|  | Marvell's $115 billion Lumentum deal drags both stocks lower | What happened: Marvell agreed to buy the laser maker Lumentum in an all-stock deal valued at $115 billion including debt. On Monday Marvell closed down about 13% and Lumentum nearly 19%. • | 📉 The double decline: Lumentum closed near $684 a share against an implied deal price of $1,132, a gap of about 40%. Investors are pricing real doubt that the deal closes. Because Lumentum holders are paid in Marvell stock, they are also exposed to Marvell's own fall. |
Dive Deeper: Silicon cannot efficiently emit light at the wavelengths data-center fiber uses. Lumentum makes lasers from indium phosphide, which can, in fabs that silicon foundries cannot simply copy. Its chief executive, Michael Hurlston, said Lumentum could not meet roughly 70% of anticipated demand for certain products through 2027, and its optical capacity is sold out through 2029. • | 🔦 Why light: Copper wiring struggles to carry the data rates of large AI clusters without power-hungry amplification. Optical links are reported to cut energy use by 40% to 80% at rack-to-rack distances. |
Why it matters: Marvell designs the chips and signal processors; Lumentum makes the lasers that turn those signals into light. Owning both would let Marvell design them together, which the companies call "extreme co-design." They put the combined addressable market at $550 billion, a figure that is their own projection. • | 🤝 Not the first step: Marvell bought the optical startup Celestial AI for up to $5.5 billion earlier this year, and Nvidia invested $2 billion in each company in March. |
• | Our take: The logic is sound: Marvell is buying scarce manufacturing capacity its customers badly need. The price is the problem, and shareholders in both companies said so by selling. Paying $115 billion in stock that falls 13% on the news is an expensive way to learn what the stock was worth. |
| | ➡️ Easy-to-Follow Portfolio |  | • | The record: Over the same period in which the S&P 500 returned 32%, the portfolio returned 64%, a lead of 33 points. |
• | Nothing held back: Every holding published in full, with the price we paid and a live call on each name. |
• | Act when we act: Each week's buys and sells reach you the morning we make them, so you act on them rather than reading about them later. |
| | What’s up Yesterday's session, factoring in pre-market data 
| $NVDA +2.3% NVIDIA Corporation |
| $MSFT +2.7% Microsoft Corporation Microsoft gained 2.7% as investors returned to mega-cap AI names following the recent technology sell-off, while analysts stayed focused on accelerating Azure growth and the rising cost of AI infrastructure. |
| $AMD +3.6% Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. |
| $MU +2.6% Micron Technology, Inc. |
| What’s down 
| $SHOP -8.7% Shopify Inc. |
| $TRI -9.9% Thomson Reuters Corporation |
| | 🤝 Your First Month Free |  | • | Where it stands: Since January 2025 the record reads 64%, 33 points clear of the S&P 500. |
• | The offer: Enter code OXFORD26 at checkout and your first month of Space Portfolio costs nothing. Cancel any time. |
| | Today's Debate → | With its shares up 9.9% on surging AI chip demand, can Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) keep climbing from here? |
 | Gregor Becker Bull 🐂 |
Yes. AMD's AI data-center sales nearly doubled and management says growth will speed up next quarter, so this looks like lasting customer demand that keeps earnings climbing, not one lucky quarter. • | Data centers carried the quarter: Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD), a chipmaker split between Computing and Graphics and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, posted a double beat as its data center segment shone, with revenue of $13,377M against $13,098M expected, and management expects growth to accelerate in Q4. |
• | Real revenue, funded by profit: Customers are paying for AI chips that show up as actual sales, and the outlook rests on that revenue. With net debt at only 0.1x EBITDA, I think AMD can fund the expansion from its own earnings and does not depend on borrowed money. |
• | What would prove me wrong: If fourth-quarter data-center revenue fails to grow faster than Q3, as management promised, I would conclude this was one strong quarter and change my view. |
 | Charlotte Whitmore Bear 🐻 |
No. AMD's jump rests on one quarter of AI chip sales, and peers have lost half their value on doubts that this spending lasts, and AMD's price assumes it will. • | One quarter, one bet: Gregor calls this lasting demand, but AMD's data-center sales nearly doubled in a single report. That proves buyers ordered heavily this time, and a promise of faster Q4 growth is a forecast rather than a repeat order. |
• | Thin profit on sales: Revenue beat estimates by just 2.1%, and the latest annual operating margin is 10.7% because research and overhead absorb most of each sales dollar. If one big customer slows its buying, earnings take the hit quickly. |
• | What would prove me wrong: I would change my mind if AMD announces large AI customers signing multi-year chip purchase commitments, because that would show demand locked in beyond one buying round. |
| | The Digest ✨ What investors like you are reading. Eurozone inflation climbed to 4% on higher energy costs, Morningstar reports. As WSJ reports, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted rates 25 basis points to 4.85%, the highest since 2008, after sharply raising its inflation forecasts. As WSJ reports, 3M ($MMM) agreed to a $7.4 billion settlement covering up to 120,000 plaintiffs alleging PFAS injuries. |
| | ➡️ Follow Our Trading Strategy |  | • | Against the index: Space Portfolio has returned 64% since January 2025, 33 points ahead of the S&P 500. |
• | What arrives: The full Space Portfolio every week, with the entry we paid and a live call on every name we hold. |
| | Situational Awareness  Curated by Nathaniel Brooks · Senior Analyst |
US • | Crypto midterm dip: Crypto prices slipped after Democratic midterm wins, and a Binance hack added to the pressure on sentiment. ( Reuters) |
• | September job openings: US job openings increased sharply in September while layoffs fell, pointing to a labor market on firmer footing despite tepid hiring that month. ( Reuters) |
• | Marvell-Lumentum all-stock deal: Marvell will acquire Lumentum in an all-stock transaction that expands its push into optical connectivity for AI data centers. ( CNBC) |
• | CVS breakup plan: CVS Health ($CVS) said it will split into two companies, an insurer and a pharmacy business. Wall Street expects third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.65 a share. ( Barrons) |
• | Futures slip, Treasurys rally: Stock futures edged lower and Treasurys strengthened after a Democratic sweep, with bond buyers moving first. ( WSJ) |
World • | Oil prices rebound: Oil prices rose, recovering some of the prior session's steep losses as investors weighed fresh US strikes on Iran. ( WSJ) |
• | Nasdaq versus broader market: Big Tech weighed on the Nasdaq while the rest of the stock market climbed. ( Business Insider) |
• | Aramco profit jump: Saudi Aramco ($2222.SR) posted a 34.5% rise in third-quarter profit. ( Reuters) |
• | Sterling hits peak: The British pound climbed to a seven-week high against the dollar as the US currency weakened. ( Reuters) |
• | China IPO pause: The country's market regulator told banks that ongoing IPO processes would continue while no new listings would be taken up. ( WSJ) |
| | Today's Agenda (ET) | Spain: Employment Change (Oct) est. 18.7K, prev 23.587K |
| Euro Area: Inflation Rate (Oct) est. 104.6, prev 104.31 |
| Euro Area: Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) est. 4%, prev 3.8% |
| US: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct/30) prev 7.37% |
| US: ADP Employment Change (Oct) est. 69K, prev 90K |
| US: Imports (Sep) est. 429.1B, prev 420.8B |
| US: Exports (Sep) est. 320.3B, prev 315.2B |
| US: Balance of Trade (Sep) est. -108B, prev -105.6B |
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