 | 3 Nov 2026 |
The Morning Brief By Gregor Becker |
Editor-in-Chief (M.Phil Economics, Oxford) | Morning, all. Thursday brings Guy Fawkes Night in Britain. First, this: Binance has reopened withdrawals on most major networks, a week after a hack of about $6.3 billion. It says it has replaced about 95% of the affected assets with its own money, up from 90% on Saturday, and the rest is still being checked. Also worth your time: • | Oracle fell 8.8% after detailing a plan to raise $20 billion, and Marvell sank 12.7% on its all-stock Lumentum deal, valued at $115 billion |
• | Oracle also splits our analysts: Nathaniel says the selloff punishes old news and a growing business can repay its debt - Jess says negative cash flow means it cannot. The full debate is below ⬇️ |
Editor's note: Today we also look at Europe and the Trump-Putin story, and our Defence Portfolio tracks Europe's rearmament. See every holding.
| | Market Snapshot Index | 24h Change | YTD | S&P 500 | -0.51% | +10.0% | Nasdaq | -1.07% | +8.3% | Dow Jones | +0.41% | +7.4% | | | DAX | -0.68% | +5.2% | FTSE 100 | -0.52% | +7.6% | Euro Stoxx 50 | +0.01% | +3.9% | Nikkei 225 | -0.33% | +21.7% | Hang Seng | +0.57% | -10.7% |
• | Our take: The split tape came down to AI worries against cheaper oil: chip and AI-infrastructure names sold off hard while consumer and industrial stocks held up. Oracle's $20 billion raise was the day's standout casualty. Watch whether the AI fears and oil relief tug-of-war carries into Tuesday. |
| | The Odds 🎲 | Together with |  |
|
What prediction markets are betting on today. -8 pts since yesterday | 28% |
| | Top of the Morning Binance reopens withdrawals after the biggest crypto hack on record By Charlotte Whitmore · Senior Analyst |
|  | Binance reopens withdrawals after record crypto hack | • | 🔓 The reopening: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Tron and Arbitrum withdrawals are back. Binance says more will follow after security checks, and that heavy traffic may delay transfers. |
Dive Deeper: Binance's early finding was that attackers may have used a compromised laptop belonging to a DevOps engineer to reach an internal service that could submit withdrawals. No wallet keys were reportedly leaked. The FBI attributes the theft to North Korea's TraderTraitor group; North Korea denies it. • | 💻 One laptop: The exchange's vaults were apparently fine. The problem was who could ask them to open. |
Why it matters: Binance says about $3 billion of the stolen assets have been frozen, including $1.57 billion by Tether and over $800 million by Circle. Freezing stolen coins and replacing customers' coins are separate things: replacing them restores customers' balances, while frozen coins are only a possible recovery for Binance later. • | 🧮 Two ledgers: Binance is covering the loss from its own funds, including its customer-protection fund, corporate treasury and futures insurance fund, and says customers will not bear it. The 95% is Binance's own figure. |
• | Our take: Binance has so far done the thing that matters most to customers: it paid. Reopening in stages is slower than announcing that everything works, and more honest. Until it publishes a full technical report, the right level of trust is whatever its audited reserves can support. |
| | ➡️ Easy-to-Follow Portfolio |  | • | Nothing held back: Every holding published in full, with the price we paid and a live call on each name. |
• | Act when we act: Each week's buys and sells reach you the morning we make them, so you act on them rather than reading about them later. |
| | What’s up Yesterday's session, factoring in pre-market data 
| $AMZN +2.2% Amazon.com, Inc. |
| $IDXX +21.9% IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. |
| $BABA +3.5% Alibaba Group Holding Limited |
| What’s down 
| $AMD -7.5% Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. |
| $ORCL -8.8% Oracle Corporation |
| $XOM -4.0% Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation |
| $INTC -8.8% Intel Corp. |
| $MRVL -12.7% Marvell Technology, Inc. |
| | 🤝 Your First Month Free |  | • | The offer: Enter code OXFORD26 at checkout and your first month of Defence Portfolio costs nothing. Cancel any time. |
| | Today's Debate → | Is Oracle ($ORCL) a buy after today's 9.8% plunge? |
 | Nathaniel Brooks Bull 🐂 |
Yes. The company announced its raise a week ago, so the selloff punishes old news, and a profitable, fast-growing business can fund its buildout and repay the debt. • | A planned raise: Oracle ($ORCL), an enterprise software and cloud infrastructure giant, filed to sell new stock and bonds, a plan it had already laid out at its investor day the week before. The filing turned a known plan into paperwork, and I think the market is paying twice for the same news. |
• | Funded by a profitable core: Oracle's revenue grew 17.4% over the latest year, and it kept a 30.8% operating margin while building. A company earning that on its existing customers can take outside money for data centers and still service the bonds, so I see this as a one-time bridge to durable growth. |
• | What would prove me wrong: If Oracle returns to the market for another large raise within the next few quarters while its cash flow stays negative, I would conclude the buildout needs capital the business cannot repay, and I would change my answer. |
 | Jess Langley Bear 🐻 |
No, Oracle funds its AI data centers by selling new shares and bonds, and its cash flow is still negative, so the business cannot repay what it raises. • | Cash goes out first: Each data center is paid for years before the customers using it return that money. Oracle's free cash flow yield is -8.0%, so the core business cannot fund the buildout, and every new bond adds interest that later cloud revenue has to cover. |
• | What would prove me wrong: Watch the return on invested capital: when it climbs well above today's low single digits, because the new data centers are earning real profit on the money poured into them, my No loses its footing. |
| | The Digest ✨ What investors like you are reading. U.S. Treasury yields rose in early European trade as investors await midterm election results, WSJ reports. Oil rose after a reported U.S. strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, CNBC reports. Brent is up 0.97% at $105.77 and West Texas Intermediate is at $97.41. Reuters reports US stock futures were mixed as Apple ($AAPL) slid, with the midterm elections looming. |
| | ➡️ Follow Our Trading Strategy |  | • | What arrives: The full Defence Portfolio every week, with the entry we paid and a live call on every name we hold. |
| | Situational Awareness  Curated by Gregor Becker · Editor-in-Chief |
US • | Nasdaq-100 correction deepens: The index slid into its third correction of the year, extending the "tech wreck" that began in October as AI worries mount. ( Market Watch) |
• | Apple and Palantir slide: Apple ($AAPL) and Palantir Technologies ($PLTR) shares both fell in Tuesday premarket trading following their post-bell earnings releases. ( CNBC) |
• | Tech selloff hits Nasdaq: The Nasdaq fell nearly 3% on Friday as sharp sector rotation marked October. ( Seeking Alpha) |
• | Hyperscaler growth doubts: Barron's says Wall Street is losing faith in the hyperscalers' growth story after last week's enormous AI capital expenditure numbers raised questions about future profitability. ( Seeking Alpha) |
• | Nvidia China exposure: The Financial Times reports Nvidia ($NVDA) has told its data center clients to reduce their exposure to China. ( TechXplore) |
World • | Record LNG decline: The International Energy Agency (IEA) says liquefied natural gas output is set for its steepest annual decline on record as the Iran war chokes off supplies. ( WSJ) |
• | RBA rate hike: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, the highest since 2008, after materially revising up its inflation forecasts. ( WSJ) |
• | Aramco quarterly profit: Aramco ($2222.SR) posted a 34.5% rise in third-quarter profit. ( Reuters) |
• | Delfin buyout financing: Del Vecchio has secured up to €22 billion from Citigroup ($C) for the Delfin buyout plan, according to a source. ( Reuters) |
• | Aramco profit relief: Aramco ($2222.SR) attributed its profit surge to higher crude volumes sold from consistent production, and to higher prices for refined and chemical products. ( WSJ) |
| | Today's Agenda (ET) | US: JOLTs Job Openings (Sep) est. 7.1M, prev 7.079M |
| US: Factory Orders MoM (Sep) est. 1.2%, prev 0.1% |
| US: API Crude Oil Stock Change (Oct/30) est. 2.1M, prev -2.031M |
| New Zealand: Unemployment Rate (Q3) est. 5.5%, prev 5.6% |
| New Zealand: Employment Change QoQ (Q3) est. 0.4%, prev 0.5% |
| Australia: Interest Rate Decision (Nov) est. 4.85%, prev 4.6% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ($AMD) reports Q3 FY2026 results est. EPS $1.95 |
| | Get In Touch | Crafted with 🧠 and 🤍 by the Oxford Market Intelligence team. Explore the paid portfolios All content provided by Oxford Market Intelligence is for informational and educational purposes only and is not meant to represent trade or investment recommendations. You signed up to this mailing list at oxford-intelligence.com or through one of our partners. © Oxford Market Intelligence 2026. All rights reserved. |
|
|
