 The Morning Brief | Gregor Becker · Editor-in-Chief (M.Phil Economics, Oxford) |
| Monday, 26 October 2026 |
| Did oil actually calm down? Not quite: it fell 2% on Monday, with WTI at $101 and Brent at $114.51, after attacks on Saudi Arabia. Traders are weighing supply risk against demand that high prices may eventually destroy. 🛢️ Elsewhere in the issue: • | Nu Holdings is the biggest mover, down 19.4% premarket to $11.88, which is 8.3x its average daily move, while MercadoLibre is off 9.3% in sympathy |
• | And AT&T, down 7.6%, has our analysts split: Jordan sees a 59.6% gross margin and an entry point - Jess sees net debt at 3.7x EBITDA and a falling knife. The full argument is just below ⬇️ |
Editor's note: The AI buildout runs on silicon, and our Data Center Portfolio holds it. See every holding.
| | Market Snapshot Index | 24h Change | YTD | S&P 500 | -0.52% | +11.2% | Nasdaq | -0.21% | +11.7% | Dow Jones | -1.23% | +7.9% | | | DAX | +0.82% | +3.5% | FTSE 100 | +0.46% | +7.9% | Euro Stoxx 50 | +0.42% | +2.9% | Nikkei 225 | -0.80% | +20.0% | Hang Seng | +0.51% | -11.9% |
| | Top of the Morning Oil Falls 2%. It Is Still $114 a Barrel. |  | Oil dips 2%, but crude still costs $114 a barrel. | • | 📉 The dip: The pullback follows Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, which the group says hit Riyadh's main airport and oil facilities on Saturday. Saudi authorities said they intercepted more missiles and drones on Sunday. A 2% fall is how oil says it is calming down. |
Dive Deeper: Hopes for easing between the U.S. and Iran helped too. Qatari mediators reportedly traveled to Tehran, though that analyst doubts the relief will last. Market chatter puts any resumption of U.S. attacks on Iran after the November midterms. Why it matters: Higher prices are their own cure, eventually. Alfaro expects more demand destruction if Brent pushes above $120 to $140. U.S. producers are adding some rigs but, he says, not making major capital spending additions. • | 🇨🇳 The buffer: Earlier this year, analysts feared $150 or $200 oil. China cut its crude imports by about 5.5 million barrels a day, and prices fell back. Oil analyst Rory Johnston now puts his anxiety at seven or eight out of ten, with inventories very low. |
• | Our take: Oil is down because two things are worrying traders at once: too little supply and too little demand. Today the demand worry won by a couple of percent. Brent is still above $114, so the supply worry is not exactly losing. |
| |  | | What’s up Yesterday's session, factoring in pre-market data 
| $CART +9.2% Maplebear Maplebear ($CART), the tech enabler behind grocers' delivery, is having a very large morning. Shares are up 9.2% pre-market to $56.41. That's 4.8x the stock's average daily move. The stock has gained 30.4% over the past month, which puts it near its $57.98 52-week high. Next up is Q3 FY2026 earnings on November 5. |
| $CCI +8.8% Crown Castle Crown Castle ($CCI), the owner of 40,000-plus cell towers, is up 8.8% pre-market to $85.77, and tower peers American Tower ($AMT) at +4.5% and SBA Communications ($SBAC) at +4.0% are rising too. The stock is 62% of the way up toward its $98.36 52-week high. Next catalyst: February 3, when Crown Castle reports Q4 FY2026 earnings. |
| $CRWD +8.2% CrowdStrike Holdings CrowdStrike Holdings ($CRWD), a Zero Trust identity and threat-hunting specialist, is up 8.2% pre-market to $257.50. That's 2.6x its average daily move, with security peers Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) up 6.9% and Okta ($OKTA) up 5.8%. The story might simply be a sector bounce. Next up is Q3 FY2027 earnings on December 1. |
| What’s down 
| $NU -19.4% Nu Holdings Nu Holdings ($NU), the purple-card neobank across Latin America, is down 19.4% pre-market to $11.88. That's 8.3x its average daily move, while the Nasdaq is off just 0.21%. Fellow Latin American platform MercadoLibre ($MELI) is down 9.3%. Next up is Q3 FY2026 earnings on November 12. |
| $BE -12.4% Bloom Energy Bloom Energy ($BE), the maker of the Bloom Energy Server, is down 12.4% pre-market to $190.68. The stock has slid 28.5% over the past month, even with Q3 2026 EPS of $0.94 against a $0.69 estimate. At that price, it sits well below its $351.28 52-week high. Next catalyst: February 4, when Bloom reports Q4 FY2026 earnings. |
| $MRNA -10.3% Moderna Moderna ($MRNA), the mRNA medicines pioneer, is down 10.3% pre-market to $181.80 after a Phase III intismeran data discussion. That's only 1.4x its average daily move of 7.5%. It might simply be profit-taking after a 489.1% YTD run. The next scheduled event is Q3 FY2026 earnings on November 6. |
| |  | | Today's Debate → | Is AT&T ($T) still a sound buy after today's 7.6% drop, or is the selloff giving patient investors a decent entry point? |
 | Jordan Bittencourt Bull 🐂 |
Yes. A business with a 59.6% gross margin and a 19.9% operating margin is still throwing off real profit, so a 7.6% one-day drop looks more like an entry point than a. • | The valuation claim: Revenue grew just 2.7% in the latest year. So the market was never really paying for growth here. A sell-off in a slow compounder resets the price without touching the earnings base, which is the thing a patient holder is actually buying. |
• | The catalyst claim: The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this week. That helps a capital-heavy carrier like AT&T ($T), the wireless company that also sells smartphones and accessories. No surprise hike means no new pressure on its financing costs. |
• | The risk claim: The weak spot is the 4.9% return on invested capital, and I would not wave it away. The asset base earns modestly. So I would size the position patiently and add in stages, all at once being a fine way to feel clever for about a week. |
 | Jess Langley Bear 🐻 |
No. A leveraged balance sheet is the warning here. A cheap-looking multiple does not make a falling knife safe to catch while the market is repricing the risk. • | The leverage problem: Jess will point to the 12.7% free cash flow yield, but net debt sits at 3.7x EBITDA. That debt gets serviced before any cash reaches shareholders. A yield that high is the market telling you how much risk it is charging for. |
• | The rate backdrop: The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, but the same report says firmer inflation readings leave a hike on the table. A leveraged borrower gains little from that, since refinancing costs stay high or climb. |
• | The cheap-multiple trap: An 11.3x P/E looks like a bargain, but low multiples usually mean the market expects earnings to shrink. I would wait for evidence that cash flow holds before calling this slide an entry point. The 0.44 beta says the stock is calm, and calm has never been the same thing as safe. |
| | The Digest ✨ What investors like you are reading. Pakistan's central bank raised its policy rate to head off inflation risks, Bloomberg Business reports. CNBC reports Nebius ($NBIS), CoreWeave ($CRWV) and Iren ($IREN) each fell more than 4% premarket Monday after Elon Musk predicted "guppy-level death" for more than 200 neoclouds. As mlive reports, Walmart ($WMT) and Target ($TGT) recalled high chairs over deadly entrapment risks, urging customers to stop use. Investors should watch for recall costs and brand scrutiny. |
| |  | | Situational Awareness US • | Wall Street AI pressure: The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 stayed under intense pressure in recent days as concerns about the AI sector persisted. ( Invezz) |
• | Factory hiring shifts: US manufacturing is adding jobs again, but a shift toward high-tech automation is creating roles with higher barriers to entry. ( WSJ) |
• | Momentum signal turns negative: Market momentum gauges have hit their weakest level since late 2025, with mega-cap tech and semiconductors hit hardest. Q4 has historically brought strong cyclical rallies. ( Seeking Alpha) |
• | Verizon earnings preview: Verizon Communications ($VZ) reports soon, with attention on whether its CEO Schulman will discuss SpaceX on the call. ( Benzinga) |
• | Apollo AI verdict: Apollo Global Management ($APO) says only tech companies are seeing growth from the AI boom, with "zero financial payoff" for the rest of corporate America. ( Business Insider) |
World • | French bond rout: A selloff in French government bonds has overshadowed the succession at the European Central Bank (ECB). ( Bloomberg Business) |
• | Brazil presidential runoff: President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro cast their ballots in the presidential runoff. ( Reuters) |
• | Lula land: The provided item carries only the headline "Morning Bid: Lula land" with no summary, so no specific fact can be stated without inventing one. ( MyrtleBeachOnline) |
• | Galp Moeve talks: Galp ($GALP) and Moeve scrapped talks to combine their refining and fuel retail businesses. ( Reuters) |
• | Ingenia bid fight: Ingenia Communities ($INA) revoked Warburg Pincus's data-room access after receiving a US$1.55 billion takeover offer from AVID Property Group. ( WSJ) |
| | Today's Agenda (ET) | Germany: Ifo Business Climate (Oct) est. 90, prev 89.9 |
| US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep) est. -0.1, prev -0.04 |
| US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) est. 7, prev 9.8 |
| Verizon Communications Inc. ($VZ) reports Q3 FY2026 results est. EPS $1.27 |
| Welltower Inc. ($WELL) reports Q3 FY2026 results est. EPS $0.64 |
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